Should Biden hold ’em or fold ’em?

You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em,

Know when to fold ‘em,

Know when to walk away,

And know when to run.

— Kenny Rogers, “The Gambler”

“The Gambler” should be the current theme song of the Joe Biden campaign. “Know when to walk away, and know when to run”: that’s it in a nutshell, after Biden’s halting debate performance with Donald Trump three weeks ago and a few word gaffes at his public press conference last week.

Until the debate, most polls had Biden trailing Trump slightly, especially in the half-dozen swing states, although the gaps were within the margin of polling error. After the debate, and again after the news conference, the Trump lead continued, most polls found, with some registering a slight gain for the former President and all-but-certain Republican nominee.

In normal political times a subpar debate performance, while unfortunate, wouldn’t be a deal-breaker for a candidate. But given the prevalent questions about Biden’s age and acuity, Democrats were counting on their guy to make a powerful showing and thereby put to rest, at least temporarily, much of the public’s concern about his ability to lead the nation.

That didn’t happen. So millions of Democrats, especially many of those running for down-ballot offices in November, are zeroing in on the options.

Should he hold ‘em, or should he fold ‘em?

Democrats who think keeping Biden on the ticket resembles drawing to an inside straight are ready to play another hand. Most of them are open to several options to replace Biden at the top of the ticket, and they haven’t yet sorted them out.

Vice President Kamala Harris? She would probably amass huge majorities among black voters, particularly black women, the most dependable segment of the Democratic coalition. And her strong insistence on freedom of choice on abortion would help her candidacy among women generally. A seasoned attorney and former prosecutor, she could argue powerfully on points of law against the constitutionally-challenged Trump. If Biden decided to, or were forced to, step down, he could comfortably endorse her as his successor since he had personally picked her as his vice presidential running mate.

A current Democratic member of the Senate or the House? There’s no shortage of those who would eagerly step up to the challenge. It’s an unusual Senator who hasn’t at one time or other daydreamed about the White House. Several of them gave it a try in the 2020 Democratic primaries. The same goes for Democratic governors, mayors and others who have tested the waters as presidential wannabes.

But what are the odds that dropping Biden and picking up someone else would be more likely to retain Democratic control of the presidency? Would major donors open their wallets to a replacement candidate who entered now? Is there time enough before November to gear up a successful presidential campaign with a replacement? And could the Democratic coalition, already brittle, withstand the battering that’s sure to accompany such a process?

For some Democrats, the dream scenario would be for Biden, Harris and the party’s kingmakers to go together to Michelle Obama, tell her that she alone has the best chance of keeping Trump out of the White House, and plead with her to accept the nomination for the good of the country. Not likely to happen, given her emphatic and repeated denials of any interest in the position. But minds have been changed over the more than two centuries of American politics.

Another whispered suggestion: Biden could step down now, thereby making Harris President. She would have a few months of experience in the job before the November election, and would be on the ballot as the presidential incumbent.

But after considering all the options, the party may decide that its best chance to retain the White House is to stick with Biden after all. It’s clear that he wants to be the candidate, and he controls the big majority of delegates to the Democratic convention in mid-August. If he stays firm, it will be difficult to stop him.

And that might be the best option. Despite his verbal errors, embarrassing or not, Biden knows the territory, both domestically and internationally. He’s been in the political and governing game for 50 years. While he misspeaks from time to time, his understanding and maneuvering through complex situations remain productive and impressive.

My mom was famous in our family for getting words mixed up sometimes. It was an endearing trait, and my siblings and I regularly hark back to numerous such instances. But her ability to raise five kids, feed us all every day, make important decisions for the household, teach us important life lessons, give piano lessons to us all for many years, counsel Dad, do some schoolteaching on the side, and take part in community life impressed all of us, and continues to do so.

So long as Joe Biden can keep the nation on a steady course, respecting the norms that guide America and other democratic nations, and provide the leadership that our worldwide allies depend on, he should be his party’s choice for President. The questions are whether he can convince enough voters that his abilities remain intact despite his age and his unique speaking style, and whether through the next four years he will retain those abilities.

His challenge between now and November is to show Americans that his intelligence and sound values will continue to serve him — and us — unabated.

THIS COLUMN WAS written last Saturday afternoon, shortly before the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a western Pennsylvania campaign rally. That’s why it contains no mention of the attack, which resulted in a wound to Trump’s ear, the death of a rally attendee, and very serious wounds to two other people. It’s the latest evidence of the current invasion of extremism into American politics, and sadly is not likely to be the last. The column, as a discussion of the dilemma facing the Democratic Party, stands on its own.

Rick Morain is a reporter and columnist with the Jefferson Herald.