Editorials: Big political shift

Political winds shifted rapidly over the past two months. The Des Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll on Sunday reported that Democrat Kamala Harris trails Republican Donald Trump 47-43% among likely Iowa voters. It confirms the sense that change was in the air as President Joe Biden stepped aside.

Biden trailed Trump by 18 points in the June Iowa Poll.

The most recent poll was in the field before and after the presidential debate in which Harris dissected Trump while he further debased himself. This could be a race within the margin of error at this point in time. A few years back, Mike Franken was within striking distance of Chuck Grassley in an early poll, and was left in the dust. The poll underlines a trend seen across a country pining to move on from fear and division.

Harris could win Iowa if the Democrats tried, we said last week. We did not know that the poll would suggest the same thing.

The party has atrophied over the past decade in Iowa. Harris has the money, Iowa is small and relatively cheap to make a run, running mate Tim Walz speaks Iowegian, and two House seats could flip to Democrats. It’s likely too late. Still, six electoral votes ain’t hay, and Harris could afford to open up the playing field with at least a glance our way while otherwise occupied in Wisconsin.

The poll reports that Harris has a 67-29% lead among suburban women. Enthusiasm is higher among Democrats. Younger voters are alarmed with Iowa’s abortion ban. Down-ballot candidates will draft off of the shift to Harris. It could mean the difference for Democrats hoping to defeat incumbents in the first and third congressional districts. It has implications for the legislature, where Republicans have solid majorities. Democrats will make up lost ground in legislative races around Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

The Republican Party is not united. Here, there are deep divisions over pipelines and corporate power going unchallenged. Democrats are united. Harris is a refreshing change of course. Being in the minority for so long eroded the Democrats’ ability to imagine winning and to organize around it. Harris could change that with just a little money and muscle. Iowa needs two parties. A defeat of Trump in Iowa would be legendary. It’s worth a small side bet from Harris.

Food inflation

Rising food costs have been top of mind the past few years. Politicians promise to bring costs down to keep the masses happy. Both presidential campaigns say they will do something about it. That’s silly talk. Food will continue to rise in cost relative to income as demand outpaces supply, limited by Nature.

Climate change and the disease that a hothouse fosters assure us that food-cost inflation will be a thing. Already, some areas of the Great Plains are giving up on growing corn because of heat and drought. Cattle are running out of water in the Panhandle. Wildfires hamper production in California, the top food state. In Iowa, millions of poultry are killed periodically with seasonal influxes of avian flu (now transmitting to humans). People complain a lot about bacon and egg prices. It will get worse with disease.

Asia is struggling to keep up with food demand from chronic soil loss, flooding and epic drought. Wheat production in China is eroding. Corn production in Iowa will be limited by increasingly hot temperatures in July during pollination. Processing livestock will get more expensive with water challenges, which we are witnessing in Storm Lake in the here and now.

Food demand is increasing. Our ability to meet that demand is being challenged. That is a formula for higher food costs.

Technology can lead to productivity increases that mitigate costs, but monkeying around with genetics can take you only so far when the well runs dry. We hear the presidential candidates yammer about inflation, but we hear precious little about how to protect and enhance our food supply. We care so little that the farm bill, which should have been passed a year ago, is moribund in Congress. This is how you feed inflation: by not paying attention to where your next meal is coming from.