Editorial: It’s the economy, stupid

Rural historian Keith Orejel of Wilmington College in Ohio presented a compelling series of charts recently on X (Twitter) that illustrate the decline of manufacturing and failure to recover from the 2008 economic meltdown, and how it shapes politics. He explains his thinking in more detail in an interview with Daily Yonder (dailyyonder.com), a rural affairs site, where he says:

“Rural America’s long-term support for pro-business Republicans and corporate-friendly Democrats, as well as their more recent embrace of Donald Trump, owes a great deal to the economic transformation of the countryside since World War II. I argued that rural America’s pursuit of industrial development gave rise to a pro-business political movement led by small-town boosters. These local elites convinced many in the countryside that business-friendly measures — low taxes, weak unions, generous subsidies, and infrastructural modernization — would serve rural economic interests by procuring factories to replace disappearing agricultural employment. By the 1970s this had become such an article of faith in the countryside that both parties embraced this centrist pro-business approach to win over rural voters. Likewise, the collapse of rural manufacturing in the first decade of the 21st century produced widespread anger in rural America towards the forces of globalization and free trade, leading many to embrace Trump’s economic nationalism and industrial protectionism.”

(We would add that the destruction and abandonment of the independent livestock producer extracted a tremendous economic and psychic toll on Iowa. Throw in a massive capital outflow toward the coasts and away from the industrial heartland that deepens the rut.)

Manufacturing in rural areas dropped 35% from 2000 to 2010, Orejel notes. The economy was unable to absorb the shock amid fiscal austerity worldwide. By contrast, the Biden Administration’s stimulus during the pandemic allowed a fast rebound that is sustained. Although non-metro labor participation has recovered, it still lags the national average because of the longer-term economic structural changes.

Half as many farmers. Wages half what they were, relatively speaking. Pocahontas and Sac counties leading the state in population loss.

We share the perspective that rural political trends are driven more by economic factors than cultural norms. Rural America has suffered a series of gut punches over one generation that left it reeling. People are attracted to Steve King because he criticizes a system that fosters undocumented workers, not necessarily for his views on gays. Likewise Donald Trump. He says a lot of despicable things, but people who believe that slave labor replaced their jobs love it when he wants to build a wall around China or at our southern border.

President Biden is trying to convince us that investment he helped put in place will revive our prospects. What has been eroded by design over a half-century cannot be rebuilt overnight. The economy is performing well. Unemployment is low in Iowa as young people flee two-thirds of our counties. The structural changes have not been made. Too much power and wealth are in too few hands, and in many rural places you know that you can’t make it here anymore. That’s the real problem.